Well, With about 3 minutes left in the candle as I’m writing this…. it’s nice to see a solid green candle that could have ended much worse. Early this morning we were down pretty decently and the price reversed higher on the day. That’s a good sign to me. Bulls are chasing off the Bear attacks pretty well here. Most likely outcome is that it continues for a while and best case scenario is that we see them at least come out and buy these dips. Hopefully with a voraciousness, like they did today.
Definitely shows strength and it’s not just Bitcoin 0.06% either, the alts are starting to dust off their boots and help start the party. I know it’s overall still overwhelmingly bearish out there. Every friend you have who knows you’re a Bitcoiner and are not themselves on board….have a little extra spring in their step. Poor little Bitcoin 0.06% has been battered since the all time high at or around 20k. Yeah, there has been a “crap load” of technical damage done on the long term BTC 0.06% chart.
And that…. is going to take some time to heal.
However, let’s get real for a second here. 1 year ago the BTC 0.06% price was like $1,265. That’s an absurd move. Bottom line is we should have never ran to 20k so quickly. We should have paced up to 10k and sat around for a while. Maybe peaked at like $12,500 and dipped to like 8k. And the action right now would be very normal if that were the case.
For anything really good to happen, we have to get back above the 50 day moving average at around the $8,400 level and we need to stay above it. Maybe even bounce off it once or twice as support once we finally do get above it. But we need to actually get above it first, that’s for damn sure.
If we do get above it and maybe have some wind in our sails, we’ll probably get all the way up to the $9,700 level where the price will meet it’s “next mini boss” the 200 day moving average. Where it could get smacked down “like a frightened turtle” or best case scenario would be to flirt with it for a while and then “hit it and quit it” if you know what I’m saying.
And of course… this is all just a pipe dream because we’re a long way from there now at the $8,200-ish area we’re camped out around.
I do love this long saucer formation that is on the verge of breaking to the upside. If the price wants to go higher this definitely supports it.
This is our point of no return though. This should bring a waterfall of selling. If we tuck back into the downtrend, we have a huge, huge, intermediate to longer term problem. So that’s the ultimate threat and Death Star to be avoided.
The old random number generator says we have to trade above yesterday’s close at $8,171 to paint a nice green 3 on the chart. Are we going to get a 9? Do we always assume we get a 9? If so, the we could have 6 more days of a slow and steady grind upward. If not, then we do a “crap sandwich”…. I mean what else can you say?
What do you think?